UNITED STATES IMPOSES RECIPROCAL TARIFFS WITH LIMITED EXCEPTIONS FOR MEXICO AND CANADA

Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on imports to the United States starting April 5, 2025.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on imports to the United States starting April 5, 2025. This measure includes differentiated rates by country, with certain exceptions for Mexico and Canada.

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TARIFFS BY COUNTRY

Mexico and Canada:
- 0% tariff only for products that comply with the USMCA.
- Non-compliant products will face a 25% tariff.
China: 34%, effective from April 9.
Vietnam: 46%
Japan: 24%
European Union: 20%
Israel: 17%
United Kingdom, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile: 10%.

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PREVIOUS TARIFFS STILL IN EFFECT

Additionally, previously imposed tariffs of 25% remain effective for:

Automobiles: As of April 3.
Auto parts: As of May 3.
Imported steel and aluminum from around the world: As of March 12.

If energy and potash products are not of USMCA origin, a 10% tariff will be applied. Compliant products will continue to have a 0% tariff, while non-compliant products under the USMCA will face a 25% tariff.

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IMPACT ON MEXICO

It is estimated that around 50.2% of Mexican exports to the U.S. will face tariffs, particularly those products that do not comply with the rules of origin established by the USMCA. The most affected sectors include:

Automotive
Electronics
Machinery

Currently, approximately 63% of auto parts imported from Mexico comply with the USMCA.
Non-compliant products will face a 25% tariff while the IEEPA emergency measure related to security and Fentanyl is in place.
If this measure is lifted, a reciprocal tariff of 12% will apply to products labeled as Made in Mexico that do not qualify as originating under the USMCA.

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STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR MEXICO

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Various experts suggest that Mexico can mitigate the impact of these measures through:

Government incentives.
Technical support to comply with rules of origin.
Diplomatic management with the U.S.

Although Mexico could partially benefit by positioning itself against competitors like China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, risks are associated with non-compliance with the USMCA in key products.

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

According to an analysis by BBVA Research, an average tariff of 10% in the U.S. could push the exchange rate to 20.7 pesos per dollar by the end of 2025, and Mexico's central bank interest rates to 7.5%.

Meanwhile, the Peterson Institute for International Economics forecasts that these tariffs could increase U.S. revenue by $300 billion, but with negative effects on:

Economic growth: Between 0.5% and 1.0% lower.
Inflation: Between 0.6% and 1.2% higher.

The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. represent a significant challenge for Mexico but also an opportunity to establish itself as a preferred partner in North American supply chains. Adapting to these changes will depend on compliance with the USMCA and maintaining a strategic dialogue with the U.S. during future renegotiations of the treaty.

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